In a representative democracy, the prospect of voter reward and punishment puts an important constraint on the everyday decisions of politicians. But what do politicians actually believe about voter behavior? And how well do their beliefs match against reality? This project will break new ground in the study of politics by investigating whether politicians overestimate the reactions of v¬oters who are personally affected by policy and whether politicians underestimate their own ability to change people’s minds. Theoretically, the project develops a new framework for understanding how politicians think about voter reactions. Methodologically, the project employs a novel research design that compares the actual reaction of voters to how politicians think voters will react. Empirically, the project will be one the first to provide systematic evidence to a longstanding question in modern democracies: Do politicians fear voter reactions and, if so, are such fears exaggerated?